Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday met IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva and discussed a range of issues, including impact of geopolitical situation on global growth.
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
'The race is now on for Indian IT firms to develop their AI prowess and focus on a software-first approach to services as the people element becomes more complicated with Trump's expected new regulations.'
Hospitality players want the government to accord infrastructure status to hotels to make investments on new properties more attractive rather than categorising them as luxury or even 'sin goods' in the upcoming Union Budget considering the sector's potential to play a key role in India's growth. They also want the government to consider incentives in the form of tax breaks or subsidies for adopting sustainable and eco-friendly practices, while asserting that the upcoming budget must accelerate the tourism agenda saying it is an opportunity to make Indian hospitality the emerging engine for GDP growth and employment generation.
Given the high priority accorded to the manufacturing sector, several policy initiatives around the theme of Atmanirbhar Bharat have been set in motion to address its competitiveness and growth. Some notable examples include the PLI scheme and the employment-linked incentive scheme announced in the recent Union Budget. The Budget also announced the setting up of 12 industrial parks under the National Industrial Corridor Development Programme (NICDP).
India is likely to become a $40 trillion economy by 2047 -- a 13-fold jump from its current size -- driven primarily by a clean energy revolution and digitalisation, billionaire Mukesh Ambani said on Tuesday. Ambani's estimate for the Indian economy, currently the fifth largest in the world behind only the US, China, Japan and Germany, is more optimistic than Asia's richest man Gautam Adani, who last week stated that India will become a $30 trillion economy by 2050 on back of rising consumption and socio-economic reforms. "From a 3 trillion-dollar economy, India will grow to become a 40 trillion-dollar economy by 2047, ranking among the top three economies of the world," Ambani said at the 10th convocation of Pandit Deendayal Energy University in Gandhinagar.
'Barring a temporary blip where stocks fell on verdict day, we are back to all-time highs.'
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Wednesday said the country is on an "upward curve" and a good monsoon, GST passage and increased infra and rural spending will further accelerate the growth.
'Today, let us reaffirm our commitment to strive to realise Gandhiji's dreams. His watchwords, truth and nonviolence, will continue to remain relevant for the whole world. He also taught us that rights and duties are but the two sides of the coin - indeed, the true source of rights is duty. Today we recall his lessons in compassion too - compassion not only for our human neighbours but also for our other neighbours, namely, flora and fauna, rivers and mountains.'
The Indian economy has recovered 'handsomely' from the pandemic-induced disruptions, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Tuesday, while expressing hope that the recovery will be sustained and the growth rate of 7 to 8 per cent will be restored. Panagariya suggested that the government must now signal its intention to wind down fiscal deficit by cutting it by half-to-one percentage point in 2022-23. "The Indian economy has recovered handsomely, returning to its pre-COVID GDP... "Only private consumption is still below its pre-COVID-19 level," the eminent economist told PTI in an interview.
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade. S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
'Kindling the private sector's animal spirits is more important than focusing on how government can give jobs on its own.'
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) slim majority in Lok Sabha may delay more far-reaching economic and fiscal reforms that could impede progress on fiscal consolidation, Moody's Ratings said on Wednesday. NDA securing a majority in the general elections will give a historic third term for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India. "We expect policy continuity, especially with regards to budgetary emphasis on infrastructure spending and boosting domestic manufacturing, to support robust economic growth.
Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Disanayaka assured Prime Minister Narendra Modi that his country's soil will not be used against India's interests, addressing concerns over China's growing influence in Colombo. The two leaders discussed a range of issues, including a defense cooperation agreement, energy ties, and debt restructuring. They also agreed to initiate a ferry service between Rameshwaram and Talaimannar, and to adopt a "humanitarian approach" to the fishermen issue.
Donald Trump's exaggerated opinion of his dealmaking capacity can get him into trouble, observes R Sriram.
The size of Budget 2024-25 has increased 6.1 per cent to Rs 47.66 lakh crore because of the rise in expenditure and higher allocation for capital expenditure and social sector schemes.
India's growth outlook has weakened sharply this year, with a crunch that started with the non-banking finance institutions spreading to retail businesses, car-makers, home sales and heavy industries.
'With India's growing capabilities in the space sector, this creates promising opportunities for enhanced collaboration and market access.'
The meeting was attended by 26 participants including Chief Ministers and Lt Governors of UTs, he said while briefing the media.
There are reports that the government will soon cut income taxes by about Rs 50,000 crore to boost consumption.
Prime Minister Modi, I suggest that, instead, you distribute about one lakh crore rupees per year to the 80 crore poor, which will boost both consumption and economic growth, suggests Kalyan Singhal, McCurdy Professor of Business at the University of Baltimore.
As the Ukraine conflict impacts the global GDP, India is projected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2022, slower than the last year's 8.8 per cent but still the fastest-growing major economy, with higher inflationary pressures and uneven recovery of the labour market curbing private consumption and investment, according to a UN report. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report released on Wednesday that the war in Ukraine has upended the fragile economic recovery from the pandemic, triggering a devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe, increasing food and commodity prices and globally exacerbating inflationary pressures. The global economy is now projected to grow by only 3.1 per cent in 2022, down from the 4.0 per cent growth forecast released in January 2022.
Quiet hiring allows employees to expand their skill sets, making them more versatile and valuable to the organisation, says Sonica Aron, founder of the HR consultancy firm, Marching Sheep.
The finance minister's assertion that industry should not expect any spectacular announcements in the 2024 interim Budget suggest that the electoral imperatives of more tax concessions or higher expenditure on welfarist programmes could be far less pronounced than they were before the 2019 interim Budget, expects A K Bhattacharya.
After 24 months of slowdown beginning in January 2018 before the pandemic and then 18 months of collapse since January 2020, we have become the world's worst performing economy, observes Aakar Patel.
'The expeditious enactment of labour codes and strategic measures to bridge the skills jobs gap are critical.'
Indigo has zero competition on 61.2 per cent of its 838 domestic routes.
Acharya emphasised that the time is "really ripe" for land, labour and agricultural reforms in India.
The two-wheeler segment has shown signs of recovery in the first half (H1) of calendar year (CY) 2024, largely driven by improving performance in rural areas. According to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, rural contribution to two-wheeler sales surged by 57-60 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2024-25, indicating a rising demand in these regions. Experts believe that this trend will continue, supported by a favourable monsoon season and government initiatives aimed at rural development.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
Economies of Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana may have grown at a slower pace than the national economy during 2022-2023.
'In the medium to long term mid-caps tend to generate higher returns, albeit with increased volatility.'
Chief ministers of three Congress-ruled states -- Karnataka's Siddaramaiah, Himachal Pradesh's Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu and Telangana's Revanth Reddy -- have announced they will not attend the NITI Aayog meeting over alleged bias against their states in the Union Budget.
'Even if there is a third wave or a fourth wave, it is hard to see the economy will suffer like that (during the first wave).'
The Indian economy is on the path of a durable recovery on the back of conducive monetary and credit conditions, the global headwinds notwithstanding, said a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article on the state of the economy. Domestically, there have been several positives on the COVID-19 front, in terms of reduced infections and faster vaccinations, the article published in the RBI Bulletin November 2021 added. The Indian economy, the article said, is clearly differentiating itself from the global situation, which is marred by supply disruptions, stubborn inflation and surges of infections in various parts of the world.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
'Mr Modi has a huge opportunity before him.' 'Whether he grabs it the way Mrs Gandhi did in 1969 or squanders it as he did in 2014 will determine his economic legacy,' notes T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
This is following revival of demand from the corporate sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), even as a nascent economic recovery is taking shape. Credit growth of scheduled commercial banks had accelerated to 9.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) by the end of December 2021 after breaching the 7 per cent-mark in November, for the first time since April 2020.
Expect a more modest out-turn of around 5 per cent (if not less) because of the longer-term scarring effects of the Covid shock, the sharply slowing growth in the pre-Covid years and some scepticism about the growth-efficacy of some of recent official policy initiatives, explains Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the government.
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
Independence Day was celebrated across states and Union territories on Thursday, as several chief ministers announced job schemes while some others vowed their support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of a Viksit Bharat by 2047.
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